EIA updates long term energy modelling to open source platform

EIA updates long term energy modelling to open source platform
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Washington’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced updates to be carried out on it’s long-term energy modelling capabilities; one key factor is turning it into an open source system by year’s end.

The updates to the EIA’s National Energy Modelling System (NEMS) will involve both an advancement of the existing model and new data, while prioritising the requirements of current US laws and regulations.

Commenting on the updates was Sauleh Siddiqui, EIA chief energy modeller, who, referencing an AEO2023 appendix, which details the considered Inflation Reduction Act provisions, stated that the enhancements are being planned to develop a “next-generation, open-source modelling framework that will be nimble and flexible to new technology and policy advancements.

“We will be engaging the modeling community and providing updates as we move forward,” added Siddiqui.

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According to the EIA, a core aspect of their mission is to develop long-term projections of the US energy system that informs decision-makers. This requires keeping pace with rapidly evolving energy markets, policies and regulations, macroeconomic trends, technology innovation and resource availability.

As such, the NEMS update will revolve around garnering a better model to account for developments in hydrogen, carbon capture and other emerging technologies.

Announcing some of the updates on social media, Joe DeCarolis, EIA administrator, stated that the ongoing developments within the policy settings of the US have urged the remodelling to better account for newly proposed regulations, “some of which are still being finalised…we must forge ahead with critical NEMS enhancements to keep pace with the changing dynamics of the energy sector.”

The NEMS is used for the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook, a yearly report using data from the modelling system. With the update, the outlook will be delayed to 2025. A Short Term Outlook will continue to be produced.

Stated the EIA: “By retooling NEMS in 2024, the next AEO (Annual Energy Outlook) in 2025 will more comprehensively address existing laws and regulations in the Reference case, including up-to-date provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act and regulatory actions that could be finalised in the coming months.”